Exploring the drivers of political violence in Tripoli 

Challenge

The client sought to enhance the evidence base for its counter violent extremism and peacebuilding activities in north Lebanon. They commissioned Siren to research the upstream drivers that lead to violent extremism in Tripoli, with a view to designing early intervention programmes that safeguard and support those most at risk of radicalisation.

Approach

Siren’s study addressed when, how and why extremist views take shape and lead to violent behaviour, and what can be done to reverse this dynamic. It paid particular attention to young individuals who participated, or considered participating, in local and regional episodes of political violence. The research population included at risk youth, convicted and non-convicted former fighters, including those in prison, as well as wanted individuals.

The research objectives were to:

1. understand how youth became involved in conflict by analysing key actors and push/pull factors

2. determine the modalities and the implications of the hundreds of terrorism-related arrests from 2014 to 2019

3. map current prevention and reintegration initiatives both inside prisons and post-release; and assess risks and threats.

To investigate and map the system from radicalisation to return, Siren used a range of research methods: key informant interviews with experts, government officials, community leaders, lawyers and activists; subject interviews and focus group discussions with recruiters, sheikhs, warders, intelligence officers, at-risk youth, former prisoners, wanted individuals and interviewee families; a quantitative field survey of 68 former fighters; urban geolocation mapping of key sites of radicalism; and an analysis of prison data on cell distribution, crimes, nationality and recidivism.

In addition to leveraging its pre-existing networks, Siren’s team of researchers spent six weeks on-location establishing the trust and rapport necessary for former fighters to feel comfortable sharing details of their motivations, struggles, influences and experiences in prison. While each story was unique, our researchers were able to map key actors and articulate typologies and trends, ultimately identifying critical drivers as well as opportunities for intervention.

Outcomes

• A 147-page report containing insights and recommendations urging holistic, adaptable and in-depth CVE programmes. The report advocated conducting preventive initiatives in critical sectors, followed by economic and social support to individuals at risk of violent extremism.

• The report suggested creative initiatives bringing together civil society, government and the private sector, wherein NGOs with a proven track record in CVE could fund and support reintegration within prisons as well as the integration of former prisoners in the job market.

• Siren’s holistic approach inspired the client to address early drivers of radicalisation, and design reintegration and reconciliation initiatives within a community-based strategy. The report also informed the funder’s strategy for P/CVE and SSR in Lebanon; Siren engaged key security sector stakeholders on the findings and integrated some of them in its own programming on prison reform in Lebanon.